Wednesday, October 26, 2016

WVU’s Win Probability Continues to Increase

Cody Clay WV flag-2

Wendell Smallwood against Liberty, credit Kelsie Vnderwijst BGS

The football power index is a is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily (

While this is not by any means a fool proof system is does take into consideration variables that lend to trends.

With the Mountaineers off to a 2-0 start their team specific FPI has continued to rise. Currently ranked 20th in the national FPI index the win percentages for each individual game are interesting. Below is the FPI for the remainder of the season. Pay close attention to the percentages under result/proj. These percentages reflect the probability of a WVU win based on the FPI formula.


Barring any upset victories the Mountaineers are currently projected to finish the season 9-3 with October being a tough month (we all knew). Of the three marque games in October WVU’s best chance of an upset comes at Baylor with win probability of 20.6%. The only true “toss-up” game at this point is @ Kansas St to end the season with a win percentage of 54.1%

If this were to stay true throughout the season the Mountaineers would finish fourth in the Big 12 behind TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma. Again this is only projections and as we have seen this past weekend upsets can and will happen. Regardless, 9-3 is a respectable record that most Mountaineer fans would be satisfied with. A 2-2 or better record in the month of October would simply be icing on the cake.

If we were to go strictly by the win probabilities of the FPI the Big 12 Conference would look like this at the end of the season:

We will continue to update this throughout the season for all you stat junkies like me.

You can see the entire FPI index HERE.



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