West Virginia men’s basketball finally gets a four-day break after playing three teams ranked inside the top-11 within a six-day period. The Mountaineers faced No. 11 Iowa State at home before traveling to face No. 5 Texas and No. 9 Baylor.
West Virginia beat the Cyclones 76-71, before losing to Texas by 34 and Baylor by 12.
The Mountaineers now sit at 15-11 overall, and are 4-9 in conference play. West Virginia is 5-11 in Quad 1 games, and are ranked 23rd in the NET.
With five games remaining, and then one more guaranteed game in the Big 12 Tournament, the question raised is if there are enough opportunities left for West Virginia to win enough games to make the NCAA Tournament. The magic number seems to be three, while four wins would almost guarantee the Mountaineers reach the big dance.
Out of West Virginia’s final five games, the three home games are against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and No. 12 Kansas State. The Mountaineers lost close games on the road to Oklahoma State and Kansas State early in January, and the Mountaineers’ only conference road win of the year is against Texas Tech.
West Virginia’s two road games are on the road against No. 5 Kansas and No. 19 Iowa State. The combined home record for Kansas and Iowa State in Big 12 play is 10-2.
So the question is, is it realistic for WVU to pick up three wins in the next five games, finish with 18 wins, 7-11 in conference play and then have a good chance at qualifying for the NCAA Tournament. This can be simply put, is it time to panic if you are the Mountaineers.
The simple answer to this is no. The longer and more accurate answer is probably, yes.
Why is it NOT time to panic?
Three wins for WVU means all they have to do is protect home court. Since the beginning of conference play, WVU is 4-3 at the WVU Coliseum, with one of those wins coming against SEC opponent Auburn. West Virginia’s three losses came within their first four games at home, and beating three opponents ranked inside the top 15 at the time (TCU, Auburn, Iowa State), is certainly nothing to scoff at.
In the same breath though, Texas Tech is coming off ranked wins against Kansas State and Texas in back-to-back games heading into their game against WVU on Saturday. Two days after that, WVU hosts Oklahoma State —the same Oklahoma State team who handed Iowa State their lone home loss last Saturday — and who is 4-1 in their last five games against the Mountaineers.
Winning those two games would give WVU 17 wins. 17 could get you in the tournament, as for example, Michigan last season finished 17-14, 11-9 in the Big Ten, lost in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, went 5-10 in Quad 1 games, had one Quad 3 loss, and were ranked 34th in the NET on Selection Sunday. The Wolverines last year were an 11-seed, and did not play in the First Four in Dayton.
For the sake of the it’s not time to panic crowd, let’s say WVU beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Come Monday night, WVU would have as many wins as that Michigan team, as many Quad 1 wins as that team, have two more Quad 2 wins, three less Quad 2 losses, and be ranked higher in the NET, while having the fourth-best strength of schedule. Currently, WVU has the third-best strength of schedule this season by the same metric.
Why it IS time to panic
On the flip side, there is enough evidence to prove it is time to panic if you are a Mountaineer fan. KenPom gives WVU a 75 percent chance to beat Texas Tech, but then only a 65 percent chance against Oklahoma State and a 63 percent chance to beat Kansas State. The combined margin of victory projected by KenPom in each of those three games — just five points.
That leaves very little room for error, and also then places an added importance on at least staying competitive in our two road games. Unfortunately though, the average margin of victory for the Jayhawks in their last five home games against the Mountaineers is 16 points. Allen Fieldhouse is also a place WVU has never won at. Hilton Coliseum offers some level of hope for West Virginia as the Mountaineers are 3-2 in their last five, with one of the two losses being by only three points (84-81 loss in 2022).
Steal one of those two road games and you almost guarantee yourself a spot in the field of 68, as you would need to win only two other games.
The only problem with that theory though is WVU has struggled in a big way on the road over the past two seasons. The Mountaineers are currently 1-6 in road conference games this year, after going 0-9 on the road last season. 1-17 in your last 18 tries on the road in conference play, doesn’t seem to bode well heading into two of the hardest environments in the country, and against two teams sitting near the top of the Big 12 standings.
Verdict
No, it is not time to panic if you are West Virginia. Road teams in the Big 12 are a combined 22-42 this season in conference play, with 12 of those 22 wins coming from Baylor, Kansas, and Texas — the three teams tied atop the Big 12 standings.
Two road wins while discouraging is not the end of the world. You played three top-11 teams and Baylor made 14 three-pointers, tied for the second-most they made in a game this year. In that game, if you’re the Mountaineers, there is some solace knowing you lost by 12, while Baylor played their absolute best they have on offense all season.
Losing one of the next two at home would move the panic meter up certainly. Take care of business at home, win one game in the Big 12 Tournament and your ticket will be punched to the NCAA Tournament. A first round exit, coupled with a 2-3 showing down the stretch though, and you could begin to run into some serious problems if you are West Virginia.
Photo by Aaron Parker, Blue Gold Sports
