The weeks just keep flying by in this 2024-25 college football season, and we are back for another Big 12 schedule breakdown with predictions for week nine (excluding Arizona vs. West Virginia).
BYU at UCF (Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m.)
The current Big 12 leader and undefeated Cougars are heading to Orlando for an in-conference matchup against the 3-4 Golden Knights. BYU is coming off a tight win against Oklahoma State on the road last Friday night. The win puts them at 7-0 on the season and has jumped them up to the No. 11 team in the country, according to the AP Poll. UCF put up a great fight against the other lone undefeated team in the Big 12, Iowa State, last week but ultimately lost 38-35. UCF has found most of its success on the ground, led by senior running back RJ Harvey, who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry with 130-plus carries and has scored 13 touchdowns through seven games. On the other hand, BYU will try to continue powering through games while scoring a lot of points, backed by quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars have scored 34 or more points in every game except one this year (against SMU). BYU will try to stay undefeated with aspirations of contending for the Big 12 title.
Prediction: BYU wins 42-28
Oklahoma State at Baylor (Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m.)
This matchup is one of the more lackluster ones this week, as both Baylor and Oklahoma State have struggled in the first half of their seasons. The Cowboys started the year with high hopes, winning three straight games against out-of-conference opponents, including an SEC victory over Arkansas. However, they have since lost four straight, all to conference teams, and are still looking to get off the snide in the Big 12. If there was any week to find their first conference win, it would be against a Baylor team with a similar trajectory. Baylor picked up its first conference win against a solid Texas Tech team last weekend, on the road, but sits at 3-4 on the year and 1-3 in conference play. Both Coach Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State and Coach Dave Aranda of Baylor are eager to put some numbers in the win column. Aranda seems to be on the hot seat (the win last weekend helped), as the Bears have gone 12-20 since winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021. He was given another shot this season after contemplating letting him go after 2023, but his slow start has not helped his case, and a loss here could be disastrous. I believe Baylor is in desperation mode and is also playing better football than Oklahoma State at the moment, so I will lean that way in my prediction.
Prediction: Baylor wins 37-31
Texas Tech at TCU (Saturday, Oct. 26, 3:30 p.m.)
The Red Raiders have had a good start to their year and were undefeated in conference play until a loss at home last weekend against Baylor, where the defense collapsed, giving up 59 points. A win in that game would have sparked discussions about their potential ranking in the Top 25, but now questions arise about whether or not they are returning to their earlier-season form. They sit at 5-2 (3-1 in conference) and have a chance to bounce back against a TCU team just above .500. The Horned Frogs got a nice road win over Utah in a low-scoring defensive battle, 13-7. Their defense was the main reason for the win, stopping Utah on a fourth down with 2:35 left in the game. In order to beat Texas Tech though, TCU will have to put up more than 13 points on the board.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins 28-17
Utah at Houston (Saturday, Oct. 26, 7 p.m.)
The Utes will look to bounce back on the road after a disappointing loss last week, including one of quarterback Cam Rising’s worst performances of the year. They sit at 4-3 overall (1-3 in Big 12) after entering the season as one of the favorites to win the Big 12. Houston was crushed at home last week against Kansas and has struggled to find its offensive rhythm. The Cougars held teams like Oklahoma and Iowa State to 20 points or less but are averaging only 13.7 points per game, marking the 132nd rank in the country (the third worst ahead of Hawaii and new FBS team Kennesaw State). It’s head coach Willie Fritz’s first year with the Cougars, but the team as a whole has looked lackluster up to this point. Utah should bounce back here, and I expect Rising to have a much better day than he did last weekend.
Prediction: Utah wins 31-17
Kansas at Kansas State (Saturday, Oct. 26, 8 p.m.)
The “Sunflower Showdown” will take place Saturday night, where the Wildcats have completely dominated lately. They have won 15 straight meetings against the Jayhawks and hope to continue that streak. Kansas sits at 2-5 after having high hopes for the season with quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels has struggled this season, throwing 10 touchdowns to eight interceptions. The Jayhawks snapped a five-game losing streak against Houston last week. Kansas State currently sits third in the Big 12 and is ranked No. 16 in the country. They are 6-1, with their only loss coming on the road to undefeated BYU. Quarterback Avery Johnson has been the X-factor for the Wildcats all season, and the defense has been fairly impressive as well. Kansas would need to win four of its last five games to become bowl-eligible, and three of those games are against top-16 opponents. So, it’s unlikely that they will be playing for much towards the end of the year, but I’m sure they would love nothing more than to ruin their rival’s path to the Big 12 Championship game by beating them Saturday night. If there is any motivation in that locker room, it is that. Johnson struggled in the loss to BYU, throwing for fewer than 150 yards and two interceptions. As long as he plays well, I don’t think they will have trouble with this Kansas team, but it will be interesting to see how the Jayhawks come out in what could be a trap game for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Kansas State wins 35-27
Cincinnati at Colorado (Saturday, Oct. 26, 8 p.m.)
This matchup between Cincinnati and Colorado will have a much bigger impact on the Big 12 than many expect. Both teams have identical records at 5-2 and 3-1 in conference play. Colorado is currently fourth in betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Big 12, while Cincinnati is sixth. The Bearcats have a lesser shot after losing to Texas Tech earlier in the season. Colorado’s sole in-conference loss is to the No. 16 ranked Kansas State Wildcats, so they still have hopes of making a run at the title. The Buffaloes have played better lately, and I believe all the remaining games on their schedule are winnable, which could potentially put them at 10-2 (8-1 in conference). Cincinnati has a tougher road ahead, having yet to play Iowa State or Kansas State, but they would love to play spoiler here on the road. Offensive stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter have powered Colorado’s offense as expected, but the same offensive line issues have continued this year as last. Sanders is being sacked an average of 4.0 times per game, tied for the fourth most in the nation. This is a huge game for both teams and, quite honestly, a must-win if they want to have any shot at making a run toward the Big 12 Championship game.
Prediction: Colorado wins 38-35